Weekly Forex Market Forecast (May 9th - May 13th 2011)

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are coming out during the week of May 9^th – May 13^th.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, May 9^th:

• AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements (last 1.3%, > good for AUD)
• GBP - Halifax HPI (0.2%, > good for GBP)
• CAD - Housing Starts (183K, > good for CAD)

Tuesday, May 10^th:

• AUD – Trade Balance (0.49B, > good for AUD)
• AUD - Annual Budget Release (> spending and < borrowing are good for AUD)
• NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report (hawkish = good for NZD)

Wednesday, May 11^th:

• GBP - BOE Governor King speaks on BOE Inflation Report (hawkish=good for GBP)
• GBP - BOE Quarterly Inflation Report (hawkish = good for GBP)
• CAD – Trade Balance (0.5B, > good for CAD)
• USD – Trade Balance (-46.6, > good for USD)

Thursday, May 12^th:

• AUD - Employment Change (17.4K, > good for AUD)
• AUD - Unemployment Rate (4.9%, < good for AUD)
• EUR - ECB Monthly Bulletin (hawkish = good for EUR)
• GBP - Manufacturing Production (0.3%, > good for GBP)
• USD - Core Retail Sales (0.7%, > good for USD)
• USD - Retail Sales (0.5%, > good for USD)
• USD – PPI (0.6%, > good for USD)
• USD – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (430K, < good for USD)
• USD - Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies (hawkish = good for USD)

Friday, May 13^th:

• EUR – EZ Flash GDP (0.6%, > good for EUR)
• USD – Core CPI (0.2%, > good for USD)
• USD – Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Survey (70, > good for USD)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.4586, 1.4898 and 1.4939.
Above: 1.5062, 1.5144, 1.5284, 1.5843 and 1.6019/37.

Support:
Initial: 1.4315, 1.4242 and 1.4156
Below: 1.4020/53, 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 80.69, 80.92, 81.18 and 81.68.
Above: 82.10/83.09, 83.49/83.77, 84.58/72, 85.37/51 and 85.92/86.35.

Support:
Initial: 80.42 and 80.19.
Below: 80.00, 79.56, 78.24 and 76.41.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.6436, 1.6462 and 1.6573.
Above: 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040.

Support:
Initial: 1.6354.
Below: 1.6226/97, 1.6140/64 and 1.6000.

AUDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0801, 1.0876 and 1.0976.
Above: 1.1000, 1.1010 and 1.1500 (likely).

Support:
Initial: 1.0661 and 1.0536.
Below: 1.0510, 1.0500, 1.0441 and at 1.0388.

USDCAD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9700/20.
Above: 0.9820/52, 0.9966 and 0.9974/1.0057.

Support:
Initial: 0.9635, 0.9572 and 0.9448/53.
Below: 0.9056 and 0.9000.

NZDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7972, 0.8061, 0.8119 and 0.8213.
Above: 0.8500 and 0.9000 (likely).

Support:
Initial: 0.7878 and 0.7816/0.7821.
Below: 0.7742, 0.7668, 0.7580/82 and 0.7500.